The future of connectivity

The Wireless Future (Aaron Swartz: The Weblog) has some interesting predictions.

On Apple's Airport hubs:

"Apple gets tired of releasing new, faster wireless hardware (AirPort, AirPort Extreme, AirPort Insane, AirPort Illegal). So they release one box, software upgradeable to use whatever new protocols and frequencies become available. As consumers clamor for more bandwidth the FCC opens up more spectrum, making the adjustable boxes more valuable."

This I like a lot. It provides a nice neat solution to issues of standards and changes in the network. This idea would allow the network to grow in a more organic fashion. Esspecially if the software upgrades are relatively cheap. Upgrading to the latest and greatest will no longer be an issue of cost. Or at least not as much of an issue. It will also allow the network to experiment more. Allowing the network to adjust to new standards and then switch back if there are issues.

On the nature of the net we've got:

"Meanwhile the boxes are getting stronger too, able to push bits for farther distances. They’re cheap and popular enough that all of San Francisco is covered a forest of overlapping wireless. It’s time to unify them. The next software upgrade turns this collection of hub-and-spoke networks into one large mesh, letting packets bounce from one base station to another, perhaps stopping at a few laptops in between.

This giant network becomes the home to a high-bandwidth file sharing network. The RIAA and MPAA look on in horror. There’s no ISP to go after, if they shut down one node the packets just bounce thru a different path. “At least it’s just San Francisco,” they think.

Brewster buys a faster Internet connection and opens it up to this giant wireless network. Everyone in SF cancels their cruddy cable and DSL service, and uses real high-speed two-way Internet connections, running their email and web servers from home, like the creators intended."

I like the idea, but I'm not sure about it being centralized around San Fransico. First major deployment of a wireless mesh network will likely happen at some universities. They have traditionally been the leaders in connectivety. Then into places like San Fransico and other techie type cities. I think SF will be a leader because of it's high saturation of techies, but I doubt it will be limtied to just them before things get nasty.

In the end Aaron says the ISPs get pissy over loosing thier business to free networks and try to get legislation passed. This sparks a huge out cry from the general population and the politicians get spooked. It all ends with:

"By then it is too late. The people own the Internet now. When there is censorship, the software routes around it. As long as there is a client and a server, they can communicate. No more DMCA takedown notices, no more Carnivore boxes, no more $40/mo., no more “capped upstream”, no more “running servers is not permitted”. The Internet is remade in its original image."

I've longed beleaved that the internet should be a utility like phones or water. And I like the idea of a freenet. I just think that the country is becoming more and more capatalistic, more and more concerned with trying to make a buck. And I think in the end we just need to get used to the idea of having to pay for connectivity.

One senario that Aaron didn't mention was competiion between free networks and pay networks. Personally, I think corporations will get more and more interested in the idea of hotspots and try to set more of them up. Probably with a "roaming" type fee attached to them for when you wonder into a competitor's hotspot. I think as these companies start setting up hotspots they will start to run into freenets that are squatting on various locations. A legal battle of the rights to a location will ensue and eventually the corporations will be given the rights to the location because they want to make money, and making money is good. And no one likes those damn hippie commies who give shit away anyways.

Ultimetly, I think freenets were squeezed out on the land lines. And I think they'll be squeezed out in wireless as well.

It's a nice dream though.

(Thanks to Doc for the link. He also provides this study as well. And for that, I owe him a drink if I ever meet him. I know some people who will be very interested in that data.)

Posted by Matt at February 26, 2003 09:57 PM